Abstract: Europe is currently experiencing an unprecedented boom in shopping-center development. Neville Moss, Head of Retail Research at Jones Lang LaSalle, looks for the main action, examines the reasons behind the surge in activity in Russia and Turkey, and sketches the prospects for new development around the region.

　　摘要：歐洲目前正經歷著前所未有的蓬勃發展購物中心，在Jones Lang LaSalle 零售研究負責人內維爾·莫斯（Neville Moss）,觀察了主要的行動,剖析在俄羅斯和土耳其十分活躍背后的理由，,勾勒出周邊地區新的發展的前景。

　　Some 50 years after Europe’s first shopping centers were built, development is booming as never before. The year 2005 was a record one, with some 4.5 million square meters (sq m) (1 square meter = 10.8 square feet) of new space completed, and 2006 was even higher with 5.2 million sq m. That is because within Europe,countries have evolved at a very different pace. Most of the shopping centers in Western Europe were built in the 1970s and 1980s. Southern Europe came to the fore in the 1990s closely followed by Central Europe (Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary) but it is now the time for the large and underdeveloped markets of Eastern Europe.

　　歐洲的首個購物中心建成約50 年后，蓬勃發展是前所未有的。2005 年創下了歷史紀錄,約有450 萬平方米 ( 1 平方米= 10.8 平方英尺)新的空間完工，并在2006 年還有更高的520 萬平方米。這是因為歐洲國家之間已經形成了非常不同的步調。大部分西歐的購物中心建于 20 世紀70 年代和80 年代，南歐在90 年代，緊隨其后的是中歐國家(波蘭,捷克共和國和匈牙利) ,但現在是大而欠發達的東歐時代。

　　Russia Most Active Market
　　俄羅斯是最活躍的市場

　　Russia was by far the most active market last year, with 1.4 million sq m opening in 36 schemes. Italy (0.61 million sq m) and Spain (0.57 million sq m), were the second- and third most active markets, followed by Germany, Turkey and Poland.

　　去年，俄羅斯是目前最活躍的市場,有36 個項目140 萬平方米開業。意大利( 61 萬平方米)，西班牙( 57萬平方米) ,分別是第二位和第三位活躍的市場,然后是德國、土耳其和波蘭。

　　The next two years are expected to see more of the same, with a record supply of new shopping-center space planned. Russia has the largest development pipeline by some margin, with approximately 4 million sq m due for completion in 2007-08 (see Chart 10-1).

　　今后兩年，預期仍會看到更多的創紀錄的新的購物中心規劃空間。兼并是俄羅斯最大的開發途徑，約有400 萬平方米預計在2007-08 年度完成(見圖10-1 )。

　　Turkey is next with 2.2 million sq m, just ahead of Italy (also 2.2 million sq m) and Poland (1.9 million sq m).The reason for Russia’s upsurge in development is its recent economic success. The Russian economy has grown at almost 7% a year since 1999, helped by the high price of oil and natural gas. The retail sector has been central to this success story and has received strong government support, including the removal of the sales tax and introduction of a flat rate income tax of just 13%. And with incomes growing by 10% a year since 2002, the boom in the Russian retail market is nothing short of breathtaking. More amazing still is that consumer credit became available only a few years ago and has already risen to US$40 billion. But this is barely 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) and is just one tenth of Western European levels, suggesting that the consumer boom has a long way to run.

　　接下來是土耳其220萬平方米，略高于意大利(也是220萬平方米)和波蘭(190萬平方米) .俄羅斯的高速發展得原因是其近期的經濟成就。1999年以來，俄羅斯經濟增長近7% ,得益于高油價和天然氣。零售業已處于這個成功的中心地位，并得到政府的大力支持，包括取消銷售稅,并實行單一的所得稅率僅13 %。2002年以來，每年收入增長10% ,蓬勃發展的俄羅斯零售市場簡直令人贊嘆。更加令人驚奇的仍然是消費信貸僅在幾年前應用，已上升到400億美元。但這僅僅是GDP的5%，只是西歐國家的水平的十分之一。這表明消費增長尚有很大的空間。

　　Moscow has been the main focus for shopping center development and international retailer expansion, but developers and retailers are now targeting other regions. In 2006, IKEA developed five additional malls under its Mega Mall brand: one in Yekaterinburg (90,000 sq m); another in Nizhniy Novgorod (97,000 sq m); one in Moscow (115,000 sq m) and two in St Petersburg (128,000 sq m and 98,000 sq m).

　　莫斯科一直是開發購物中心和國際零售商擴張的熱點。但是，現在開發商和零售商正瞄準其他地區。2006 年,宜家以它下屬的“百萬摩爾”（Mega Mall）的品牌開發了的5 個商場。一個在葉卡捷琳堡( 9 萬平方米)；另一在諾夫哥羅德(9.7 萬平方米) ；一個在莫斯科( 11.5 萬平方米)和兩個在圣彼得堡( 12.8 萬平方米和9.8 萬平方米) 。

　　Russia’s Regional Cities Have the Largest Short Term Development Potential

　　俄羅斯區域性城市,擁有最大的短期發展潛力

　　In the Millionniki (11 regional cities with a population of one million and over), stock is expected to rise from 1 million sq m today to 3.4 million sq m by 2008. Samara, Nizhniy Novgorod, Kazan and Yekaterinburg remain the retail hotspots, but Novosibirsk, Ufa and Rostov will also see strong retail provision growth. The Moscow development market remains buoyant, however, and includes the 80,000 sq m Metropolis. Due in 2008, it is one of the first malls geared toward the wealthier shopper.

　　在Millionniki ( 11 個區域性城市的人口在100 萬以上) ,通常可望從現在的100 萬平方米上升至2008年的340 萬平方米。薩馬拉、諾夫哥羅德、喀山和葉卡捷琳堡保持為零售的熱區。但新西伯利亞,、烏法和羅斯托夫還會見到強勁的零售業供應量的增長。然而，莫斯科開發市場仍然蓬勃增長,包括應在2008 年的8萬平方米的Metropolis。它是第一個面向富人購物者的摩爾。

　　In Turkey, a Young and Fast-growing Population is Driving Retail Growth

　　一個年輕的人口迅速增長的土耳其推動零售業的增長

　　Turkey is also booming, and is one of the fastest growing and largest emerging economies. The population of 74 million will grow faster than any other European country over the next five years, and the principal city of Istanbul, one of Europe’s four ‘mega cities’ alongside Moscow, Paris and London, will see its population rise by 14%. An increasingly urban and very young Turkish population—70% under age 35, compared with less than 50% in Western Europe—is becoming richer and embracing Western shopping habits. This is driving the retail sector and inspiring the development of new malls, with 26 new openings in 2006, including the highly innovative Kanyon shopping center in Istanbul which is anchored by Harvey Nichols, Britain’s upmarket fashion department store.

　　土耳其也在蓬勃發展，它是增長最快的之一，也是最大的新興經濟體。人口7400萬人，在未來五年內將比任何其他歐洲國家的增長要快。主要城市伊斯坦布爾,它與莫斯科、巴黎和倫敦是歐洲四個“百萬城市”，將看到其人口增長率為14 %。土耳其越來越多的城市,非常年輕的人口——70%人口在35歲以下。而西歐低于50%。這些年輕人正成為富人并接受西方的購物習慣.這是零售業和激勵開發新的商場的驅動力。2006年有26個新開業的，包括高度創新在伊斯坦布爾的Kanyon購物中心，它由英國的高檔時尚百貨公司哈維尼科爾斯作為錨店。

　　Over the next two years more than 60 new centers are scheduled to open. The main share of the pipeline (43schemes) will be developed in Istanbul and in the capital, Ankara, but regional markets are gaining in importance, with another 18 schemes due for completion in cities such as Bursa , Izmir and Antalya.

　　在未來兩年內，超過60 個新購物中心將落成啟用，43 個項目的主要份額分布在伊斯坦布爾和首都安卡拉,但區域市場也日益受到重視,另外18 個項目應該在布爾薩、伊茲密爾和安塔利亞等城市落成。

　　Southern Europe is Maturing
　　南歐正在成熟

　　New shopping centers are still springing up in the “maturing” Southern European markets. In Italy,development is heavily focused on the under-supplied central and southern regions, but this remains a relatively poor area and there is doubt as to whether all the planned space will actually be built. In Spain,shopping-center supply has doubled over the last six years, but is now growing more slowly. The focus here is on second-tier cities and on Mediterranean coastal locations such as Valencia, Alicante and Murcia. New residential development, the increase in second homes and a strong tourist economy is proving a powerful attraction to developers.

　　在"成熟"和南歐市場，新的購物中心仍如雨后春筍。在意大利,開發長子側重集中在供應不足的中部和南部地區,但這仍然是一個相對貧窮地區。產生的疑問是是否將所有規劃的空間實際建在西班牙。過去六年來，購物中心供應量增加了一倍,但現在是越來越慢。重點是在二線城市和地中海沿岸的地點如瓦倫西亞,阿利坎特和穆爾西亞。新住宅的發展；增加第二居所和強大的旅游經濟對開發商有強烈的吸引力。